Guardian Research
The record

The Guardian book since March 13, 2025.

One portfolio, the author's own money, measured the way an allocator would measure it: time-weighted, net of trading costs, against the S&P 500 total return. Completed months are frozen and never restated; the current month is shown to date and updated after each close.

Inception March 13, 2025 · Frozen through September 30, 2026 · Oct 2026 to date through October 23, 2026 close
Cumulative
Mar 13, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026
+112.1%
S&P 500 total return+30.9%
Excess+81.2 pts
Annualized
Over 1.61 years
+59.4%
S&P 500 total return+18.2%
Excess+41.2 pts
2026 year to date
Jan 1 to Oct 23, 2026
+37.7%
S&P 500 total return+12.1%
Excess+25.6 pts

Growth of 100: the book against the S&P 500

Month-end values from March 2025, then Oct 2026 to date (dotted). 100 at inception is 212 in the book and 131 in the index as of Oct 23, 2026.

The bookS&P 500 total return
Positive months
12 of 19
63% of complete months
Beat the index
13 of 19
68% of complete months
Best / worst month
+37.6% / −15.4%
Sep 2025 / Nov 2025
Largest drawdown
−16.4%
Oct 2025 to Dec 2025; index +0.0% over the same span
Volatility, annualized
41.9%
index 12.5%, complete months
Return over volatility
1.70
index 1.53, complete months
Every month

Every month since inception.

MonthThe bookS&P 500 TRExcessBook, growth of 100Index, growth of 100

The complete months as a file: monthly.csv. The file changes once a month; the row marked to date above it changes after each close.

Follow the book as it moves.

Every trade as it is made, the live book, a focus list and a watchlist, five outside analysts with their own channels, in the Guardian Discord. $19 a month or $129 a year at founding-member pricing. Join by November 7 and keep that price for as long as you stay.