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One long-form pitch from the letter, reproduced as a PDF exactly as published, with the closing price on the day it went out and the price now. Nothing is edited after the fact. New write-ups go out on the Substack first; the follow-ups run in the Discord and on X.
$SN: The Sneaky Compounder With 40% Upside.
A 2023 spinoff, a tariff reset, and a Street estimate that looks at least a year stale. SharkNinja (NYSE: SN).
The short version
- A 2023 spin from JS Global that listed at $42.31. Revenue of $6.4 billion last year, up 16%, adjusted EPS of $5.28, up 21%, and a first-ever $750 million buyback, about 4.6% of the float.
- Street 2026 EPS consensus of $4.52 against company guidance of $5.90 to $6.00: the first-half tariff drag modeled with none of the second-half normalization.
- Nearly all US-bound volume made outside China by the fourth quarter of 2025, with the product cadence rebuilding from 20 launches toward the high twenties.
- DCF of $147 a share. Bull case $160 on $8.00 of 2026 EPS at 20x. Bear case $82.
What would make it wrong
A first half uglier than guided, launches that underwhelm, further China retaliation against the new supply chain, and a multiple compressing to 15x on flat $5.50 of EPS.
By the return, not by the memory.
The rule
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Disclosure
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